The world is splintering rapidly, and this week offered stark proof: in Moscow, 27 foreign leaders, including China’s Xi Jinping and a contingent of Chinese troops, commemorated Victory Day while tacitly endorsing Russia’s illegal war in Ukraine. In sharp contrast, just four European leaders stood with President Zelensky in Kyiv to support the distant hope of a war crimes tribunal for Russian leaders and soldiers — a symbolic gesture, given that true accountability remains elusive. The United States’ long-standing hostility toward the International Criminal Court is well known, but its increasingly transactional stance toward Moscow marks a deeper strategic shift. As U.S. influence wanes and its peace efforts falter in Ukraine and the Middle East, it appears poised to retreat, leaving space for more aggressive and less law-bound powers to fill the vacuum. Sovereign borders are now breached with impunity, international law is ignored, and global alignments are hardening fast. Even India and Pakistan are stepping toward confrontation. Day by day, the planet is rearming, dividing, and inching closer to a broader conflict with no clear boundaries, and even fewer rules.
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The Fractured Order
Quick Takes
May 11, 2025

Tim Sebastian Quick Takes
Quick Takes on International Politics with Tim Sebastian – A sharp, fast-paced micro-podcast delivering incisive analysis on global affairs. Veteran journalist Tim Sebastian cuts through the noise with no-nonsense insights on diplomacy, conflict, and power dynamics—one quick take at a time.
Quick Takes on International Politics with Tim Sebastian – A sharp, fast-paced micro-podcast delivering incisive analysis on global affairs. Veteran journalist Tim Sebastian cuts through the noise with no-nonsense insights on diplomacy, conflict, and power dynamics—one quick take at a time.Listen on
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